Ramunas Gatautis and Hans F. Ravn: Modelling of energy supply systems by the Balmorel model, Energetika, 2005 Nr. 2, 8-20.


Analysis of the integrated development of electricity, natural gas and district heating sectors is highly relevant in Central and Eastern European countries, because in this region natural gas and district heating sectors are well developed in addition to the electricity system. The focus of this paper is on the Lithuanian energy sector. The paper presents the bottom-up modelling of district heating networks within a model that simultaneously handles the lectricity network. This permits an integrated representation of the (international) electricity system and details of local heat supply systems. The basis for the modelling was the Balmorel model, which was created for analysis of electricity
sector development under liberalized market conditions. The paper presents the modification with an additional module which allows a description and analysis of energy transmission networks in more detail. The new module characterizes each segment of a network by a few basic technical-economical parameters. The model estimates the economics in installation of new and renovation of old district heating network capacities, construction of new heat
production sources, variation of final consumer’s demand and scenarios of building renovation (the latter feature is very relevant for CEE countries). The paper presents an analysis of the Lithuanian situation, with an emphasis on the district heating sector. Various scenarios for the development of a small local energy supply system are described and analysed in relation to business as a usual situation: decentralization of generation, new heat sources in existing district heating networks, new cogeneration plants, introduction of heat storage and energy saving at the consumer nodes.

Key words: mathematical modelling, networks, district heating, power system,
natural gas