Sara Ben Amer, Rasmus Bramstoft, Olexandr Balyk, Per Sieverts Nielsen: Modelling the future low‐carbon energy systems ‐ case study of Greater Copenhagen, Denmark, International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, .


In the light of insufficient climate policy on the global and national scale, some ambitious cities are becoming frontrunners of the climate action. Copenhagen, Denmark, is one of them and aims to achieve a CO2‐neutral energy system in 2025. Reaching this goal requires, among other, changes in energy supply portfolio, which can be assessed using energy systems modelling. The aim of this study is to construct and evaluate scenarios for sustainable electricity and heat supply in Greater Copenhagen with a particular focus on the new district, Nordhavn. The energy scenarios are modelled with the energy system model Balmorel, and they are assessed and compared with focus on heat and electricity prices and CO2 emissions. Sensitivity analyses are conducted considering changes in the coefficient of performance (COP) of heat pumps and the discount rate. The results show that expanding Copenhagen's district heating system to Nordhavn is a promising solution from a socio‐economic perspective. If it is chosen that the heating supply in Nordhavn should come from a local source, power‐to‐heat technologies are preferred. Despite the narrow geographical focus, the challenges discussed in this paper and the method developed are relevant for other urban areas in Europe that aspire to have sustainable energy systems.