Activities of the Balmorel project

Activities during 2009:

• Together with the Baltic Development Forum, Ea Energy Analyses has conducted a study on enhanced regional energy cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region. The study gives a brief overview of the energy situation in the Baltic Sea Region, and a detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and district heating markets have been made. The study is a multi-client study, financed by the Nordic Council of ministers, the Nordic Council, the Baltic Development Forum and the Mads Clausen Foundation, Danfoss. More information at Baltic Development Forum's web site.
• Completion of the project on efficient district heating in the future energy system, initiated 2008, cf. below. See the report here.
• Completion of the project Economic and technical research of the Harku-Sindi-Riga 330 kV line for Osaühing Põhivõrk, the transmission system operator in Estonia. The project examined the economic and technical consequences for the Baltic electricity market of establishing a transmission line from Harku in Estonia to Riga in Latvia. It comprised three main activities: Establishment of an energy market model, analysis of the socio-economic impact and technical analysis of the new line. Ea Energy Analyses with COWI, SEAS-NVE and RAM-løse edb, for more info see here.
• Long-term heat plan for Greater Copenhagen where the objective was to enable the heating companies in Greater Copenhagen to ensure a reasonable development in heat prices and energy efficiency while at the same time maintaining security of supply, reducing CO2 emissions and integrating more renewable energy into the heat production. The project examined which heat sources and technologies would be economically and environmentally attractive in the metropolitan district heating system. The data foundation, the CHP part and the grid part of the Balmorel model were further developed and used for this project by Ea Energy Analyses, for more info see here.

Activities during 2008:

• A major revision and further development of Balmorel, including development of a graphical user interface, is taking place. The result will be released some time during 2010.
• Integration of wind power in New Brunswick, Canada. The project encompassed technical, economic as well as organisational assessments, including an evaluation of how the cooperation with the surrounding areas can be used most efficiently when integrating the wind power. The final report from the project is available at the NBSO website.
• Economic and technical research of the Harku-Sindi-Riga 330 kV line for Osaühing Põhivõrk, the transmission system operator in Estonia. The project examines the economic and technical consequences for the Baltic electricity market of establishing a transmission line from Harku in Estonia to Riga in Latvia. It comprises three main activities: Establishment of an energy market model, analysis of the socio-economic impact and technical analysis of the new line. Ea Energy Analyses with COWI, SEAS-NVE and RAM-løse edb.
• Efficient district heating in the future energy system. District heating and combined heat and power may play an important role for the efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and to use energy more efficiently. At the same time, large amounts of wind power in the electricity system may reduce the operating hours of CHP plants. The project is carried out by District Heating of the Future Committee of the Danish District Heating Association, Risø, RAM-løse edb and Ea Energy Analyses for the Danish Energy Research Programme.
• The Economic Council (Denmark) has used Balmorel in their analysis 'Economy and environment. Danish energy policy' (2008), get the full report (in Danish) here, and get the English summery here.

Activities during 2007:

• Energy Policy for Mauritius: An international consortium including UNEP Risoe Centre and Ea Energy Analyses is working on a project aiming to propose an energy strategy and an action plan for Mauritius until 2025. The project is carried out for the government of Mauritius and financed by the EU and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The work includes analyses of the electricity sector and here the Balmorel model is being employed. More information.
• Congestion Management in the Nordic Electricity Market: Commissioned by the Electricity Market Group under the Nordic Council of Ministers, Hagman Energy AB, Ea Energy Analyses and COWI are investigating advantages and disadvantages of different methods of congestion management. Balmorel is the key modeling tool to simulate efficiency in resource utilization in this context.
• The Price of Wind Power: Danish Environmental Assessment Institute (now the under The Secretariat of the Danish Economic Council) released a report on the price of wind power. Background calculations on the system costs where carried out by Ea Energy Analyses using the Balmorel model.
• Analysis of a wind power intensive scenario for Denmark - 50% wind power in 2025 - , see the description of the project and the report here.
• The analysis 'Impact of CO2 quota allocation to new entrants in the electricity market' was performed for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. The report may be downloaded here.
• The study aiming at development of an integrated model for and studies of the Danish natural gas and electricity systems was finalised. See further at the document and model pages.
• The study on steps for improved congestion management and cost allocation for transit in the Nordic countries was undertaken for the official co-operation organisation in the Nordic region. Get the report here.

Activities during 2006:

• A project on analyses of demand response in Denmark has been finalised. The report contains i.a. Balmorel simulations in relation to the subject, get the report here.
• A master's thesis dealing with investment in new transmission capacity between Estonia and Finland and the effects on the electricity market and welfare has been finalized, get the document here.
• Analyses of the distribution of economic costs and benefits of applying the West Africa Power Pool Cooperation Model for the coastal transmission backbone.
• The Balmorel model updated with minor changes 20060130.
• The Balmorel model will be enhanced in order to analyse heat transmission and heat pricing in the greater Copenhagen district heating systems. The study is conducted by EA Energianalyse.
• Continuation of the study aiming at development of an integrated model for and studies of the Danish natural gas and electricity systems.
• Continuation of the Nordic Energy Perspectives project. The first phase of the project is now finished, get the report here.

Activities during 2005:

• A graphical tool for illustrating market power in the electricity sector has been developed in a preliminary version. It can be freely downloaded at the download model page. Enjoy it!
• The Nordic Energy Perspectives is a Nordic multidisciplinary energy-research project with the overall ambition to contribute in strengthening economic growth and development in the Nordic countries.  Balmorel is used for analyses as one among several models.
• The Balmorel model was used for evaluation of the utilisation of the NorNed cable between Norway and The Netherlands for the Norwegian Oil and Petroleum Department.
• Balmorel represents the basic functionality of the electricity and combined heat and power systems, and it is extensively documented. It may therefore serve as an ideal starting point for further modelling activities that aim at in-depth studies of specific topics within the energy system. Two such activities have been finished recently:
  • The WILMAR project studied large scale integration of wind power in the North European electricity system. One result of the project is a simulation model, see further the homepage at Risoe National Laboratory . 
  • The MOREHyS model was developed for the study of integration of a hydrogen economy into the German energy system. It applies a geographic information system (GIS). See a presentation here, read Ball M, et al.: Integration of a hydrogen economy into the German energy system: an optimising modelling approach, Int J. Hydrogen Energy (2006), and find further information at ISI-Fraunhofer and UNI-Karlsruhe
• By providing model functionality in transparent form and a working data set, the Balmorel model may serve as back-bone in teaching and training activities. Two master’s theses in this vein were finalized during 2005:
  • One thesis from IMM at the Technical University of Denmark on modelling of investments in the electricity sector, the Danish title is “Modellering af investeringer i elsektoren”, find it here. This work extends the methodology of endogenous investments in the Balmorel model to permit a fully flexible treatment of the time horizon(s) for investments.
  • One more thesis from IMM at the Technical University of Denmark on natural gas, the title is “Natural Gas Supply in Denmark - A Model of Natural Gas Transmission and the Liberalized Gas Market”, find it here. This work introduces a natural gas transmission system into the Balmorel model. 
• A study aiming at development of an integrated model for and studies of the Danish natural gas and electricity systems was initialized, supported by the Danish Energy Research Program. The resulting model builds on the Balmorel model, and will become available on open source conditions by the end of 2006.
• A study aiming at analysing flexible electricity demand has been undertaken, it will be finalized mid 2006. The project is supported by the Danish Energy Research Program, and involves Risoe and the Danish TSO's. The project  involves among other things enhancement of and simulations with the Balmorel model.  See further the project's homepage at Risoe National Laboratory 
• The model structure and the documentation have been updated to version 2.12 Alpha, ready for download.
• Continuation of the analysis of market power in the electricity sector. The final report from the project, "Modelling Imperfect Competition on the Nordic Electricity Market with Balmorel",  is now available here.  
• The model will be updated to permit improved flexibility in the time division within the year. In particular this will permit the analysis of one year on hourly basis (probably organised in a 52x168 structure, i.e., 52 weeks with 168 hours). 
• An Excel based user interface was developed to supplement the present user interface. A test version exists, contact us if you are interested in trying it out.
• Continuation of the analysis of supply of production capacity in the liberalised electricity market of the Nordpool area. The project was conducted in cooperation between Risoe and the Danish TSO's.  The project report was finished in May and may be found here.
• A handling of hydro power will be implemented that permits incorporation of stochastic elements . 
• The analyses of the Power Sector Development in a Common Baltic Electricity Market was finished in May, see the report here. The project was conducted in cooperation between Eesti Energia, Latvenergo, Lietuvos Energija, Elkraft System and COWI, and financed by the Danish Energy Authority  

Activities during 2004:

• A diploma thesis on "Integration of energy saving technologies and learning curves into Balmorel" was finished, see the document here.
• The model has been used for an analysis of the transmission cable between Norway and the Netherlands for the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy.
• The model was updated (to version 2.11). The changes include the possibility to model multi fuel technologies.
• Continuation of the analysis of market power in the electricity sector which was initiated last year (see a recent presentation here).
• Continuation of the analysis of  supply of production capacity in the liberalised electricity market of the Nordpool area which was initiated last year. 
• The model structure will be further developed. The specific area will depend on the users’ requirements. Expectations are that there will at least be developed an improved handing of hydropower, in continuation of the improved flexibility in the time division within the year which is well under way from 2003. See in the 2004 Zürich paper here how short term electricity prices and hydro inflow may be modelled.
• The model was used for analyses of the electricity sector in Poland, and the Baltic countries in relation to e.g. the creating a common Baltic electricity market.

Activities during 2003:

• Analysis of market power in the electricity sector. The focus will be on the Nordpool spot market. A 2003 background report on the competition in the electricity sector in the Nordic countries: "Report from the Nordic competition authorities - A Powerful Competition Policy", is available here. As a first step, the classical Cournot model was implemented in the Balmorel model in a simple version.
• Analysis of supply of production capacity in the liberalised electricity market. Initially the focus will be on the supply in relation to the spot market. The geographical delimitation in the project is the Nordpool area.
• Enhancement of the model to simulate one year in one-hour time steps is now being developed. For a number of analyses it is desirable to work on a fine time resolution. In the Nordic market - and in many other contexts - basic market information is given on a one-hour basis. Presently, a prototype model exists, representing all hours of 2001 in the Nordpool electricity exchange area. A first model version will be made available in the first half of 2004.
• The model structure of the Balmorel model with its current data has been taken as starting point for modelling activities in the Wilmar project. The key task of the Wilmar project is to analyse the integration of wind power in a large liberalised electricity system covering Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway and Sweden.

Activities during 2002:

• Analysis of market power in the electricity sector. See the presentation here that was given at the seminar "Risk Management and Investments in a Liberalised Electricity Market", Copenhagen, September 2001. Activities will continue during 2003.
• Update of the Balmorel model. Version 2.1 (Alpha, October 2002) is made available.
• Application in relation to evaluation of Danish environmental and energy policy in the nineties, see ‘Dansk Økonomi, forår 2002’.

Activities during 2001:

• Economic analyses in the electricity sector in Lithuania. The project was financed by the Danish Energy Agency. Participating companies are Lietuvos Energija, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Elkraft System, COWI, and others.
• An analysis of tradable green certificates (TGC) and tradable emission permits (TEP) in the Baltic Sea Region. This project aims at modelling and analysing the effects of having several partially overlapping markets (the electricity market plus a variety of certificates' and permits' markets) in the Baltic Sea Region. Part of the work is presented in "Co-existence of electricity, TEP and TGC markets in the Baltic Sea Region", Energy Policy Vol.21 No.2003.
• Research and development in relation to renewable energy technologies - how to time the support for this within a regional electricity market.
• A multiresolution modelling analysis was done. Here the Balmorel model was used to find the electricity flows in the Nordic power system, which then was added to a detailed unit commitment model of the electrictity system in Eastern Denmark as exogeneous parameters. The results was presented at IEEE Power Industry - Computer Applications" conference in Sydney, May 2001. See the paper here.
• The model has been used as basis for a stochastic multi-stage model of the Nordic electricity market, which is solved using sampling methods like Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming. Part of this work was presented at the conference "Stochastic Programming '01" in Berlin, August 2001.

The initial project (1999-2000):

The main results of the initial part are described in the following documents:

• Main report: A model for Analyses of the Electricity and CHP Markets in the Baltic Sea Region
• The Balmorel Model: Theoretical Background (Appendix to main report)
• Elasicities - A Theoretical Introduction (Appendix to main report)
• The Balmorel Model Structure (Appendix to main report) (Updated version)
• Data and Calibration (Appendix to main report)

The main report and the appendices can be downloaded from the download papers page. On this page application papers are also available.

The model itself (updated) may be downloaded from the download model page.